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Frank Caropreso's avatar

Great insights here, Leonie. Sadly, it looks like the current 80-year cycle is coming to an end. The integration of the recent decades has lifted untold numbers of people out of poverty in the developing world, while making the developed world much richer. Unfortunately, it has also helped increase economic inequality in the developed world, with all the negative consequences you mention.

If the age of globalization is ending, we are likely returning to the pre-war world of mercantilism and regional economic and military powers and alliances. In this world, local geography becomes much more important, even determinative. Sir Halford Mackinder wrote about these ideas in the late 19th and early 20th Centuries.

We all know too well what happened in those times - two world wars, the rise of communism and fascism, the Cold War, etc. I share your hope that we can follow a path healthier than our ancestors followed.

Charlotte Wright's avatar

I feel like in the West we are definitely going through a globalisation backlash, and we've seen the consequences with Trump, Brexit and the rise of nationalism and the far-right in Europe. Trump talks about bringing back manufacturing to the US but it's not realistic - the wage (and workers' rights) differential is too high.

So how can we remodel our economies to make globalisation work for everyone? That's the big challenge, because clearly there's no going back on globalisation. It needs to be innovation-based, and it's going to need a higher level of education throughout the economy. Green energy tech could be part of the solution. But it's a really difficult question, and if we are at the crossroads, we need to figure out what the next 80-year cycle is going to look like. One thing is for sure - more tariffs and more borders can't possibly be the answer!

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